Free CFA-Level-III Exam Braindumps (page: 37)

Pace Insurance is a large, multi-line insurance company that also owns several proprietary mutual funds. The funds are managed individually, but Pace has an investment committee that oversees all of the funds. This committee is responsible for evaluating the performance of the funds relative to appropriate benchmarks and relative to the stated investment objectives of each individual fund. During a recent investment committee meeting, the poor performance of Pace's equity mutual funds was discussed. In particular, the inability of the portfolio managers to outperform their benchmarks was highlighted. The net conclusion of the committee was to review the performance of the manager responsible for each fund and dismiss those managers whose performance had lagged substantially behind the appropriate benchmark.

The fund with the worst relative performance is the Pace Mid-Cap Fund, which invests in stocks with a capitalization between S40 billion and $80 billion. A review of the operations of the fund found the following:
• The turnover of the fund was almost double that of other similar style mutual funds.
• The fund's portfolio manager solicited input from her entire staff prior to making any decision to sell an existing holding.
• The beta of the Pace Mid-Cap Fund's portfolio was 60% higher than the beta of other similar style mutual funds.
• No stock is considered for purchase in the Mid-Cap Fund unless the portfolio manager has 15 years of financial information on that company, plus independent research reports from at least three different analysts.
• The portfolio manager refuses to increase her technology sector weighting because of past losses the fund incurred in the sector.
• The portfolio manager sold all the fund's energy stocks as the price per barrel of oil rose above $80. She expects oil prices to fall back to the $40 to S50 per barrel range.

A committee member made the following two comments:
Comment 1: "One reason for the poor recent performance of the Mid-Cap Mutual Fund is that the portfolio lacks recognizable companies. I believe that good companies make good investments."
Comment 2: "The portfolio manager of the Mid-Cap Mutual Fund refuses to acknowledge her mistakes. She seems to sell stocks that appreciate, but hold stocks that have declined in value."

The supervisor of the Mid-Cap Mutual Fund portfolio manager made the following statements:
Statement 1: "The portfolio manager of the Mid-Cap Mutual Fund has engaged in quarter-end window dressing to make her portfolio look better to investors. The portfolio manager's action is a behavioral trait known as over- reaction."
Statement 2: "Each time the portfolio manager of the Mid-Cap Mutual fund trades a stock, she executes the trade by buying or selling one-third of the position at a time, with the trades spread over three months. The portfolio manager's action is a behavioral trait known as anchoring."

Indicate whether Statement 1 and Statement 2 made by the supervisor are correct.

Jimena Mora, CFA and Jack Wieters, CFA are economists for Otterbein Forecasting. Otterbein provides economic consulting and forecasting services for institutional investors, medium-sized investment banks, and corporations. In order to forecast the performance of asset classes and formulate strategic asset allocations, Mora and Wieters are currently examining the capital market expectations for four developed countries: Alzano, Lombardo, Bergamo, and Linden. Wieters was hired in 2009 and Mora is his supervisor.
Mora and Wieters use the Grinold and Kroner model to forecast equity market performance. Macroeconomic forecasts and capital market expectations for three countries are given below:

Mora is also examining the return on federal government bills and bonds of various maturities for the country of Linden. The data are provided below:

One of Otterbein Forecasting's largest clients is an institutional investor in Linden, the Balduvi Endowment. The current and potential asset allocations for the endowment are shown below:


Mora asks Wieters for his opinion on the future of the economy in Linden and the appropriate investment for the Balduvi Endowment.
Mora has been asked by the Otterbein CEO to develop a model for explaining stock returns. In her master's degree training, Mora was instructed that the default risk premium has predictive power for stock returns, however the CEO has asked her to include other macroeconomic variables. Mora examines the following data for the capital market history of Bergamo:
1. Default risk premiums, which she measures as the difference in yields between high-yield bonds and government bonds;
2. Maturity risk premiums, which she measures as the difference in yields between ten-year and one-year government bonds; and
3. Lagged changes in the stock market.
Mora uses these variables to explain stock returns in the following year. Using 40 years of data, she finds the following results for the significance of the variables in explaining stock returns:

Mora concludes from the correlation analysis that, of the three variables studied, the default risk premium has the most predictive power for stock returns.
As the most recent hire at Otterbein Forecasting, Wieters is well versed on the latest evidence on asset pricing and financial engineering. However, Mora suspects that his limited experience results in erroneous forecasts. For instance, during the credit crisis of 2007-2008, annual stock returns in Lombardo averaged -12.6%.
However, using the 80-year history of its capital market, annual stock returns in Lombardo have averaged 13.6%. For his clients' strategic asset allocations in 2010 and onward, Wieters projects Lombardo stock returns of 6.5%. As his supervisor, Mora questions him about this and she suggests that Wieters revise his projections upward.
Mora and Wieters are discussing the valuation and risk analysis of emerging market securities and economies. In their discussion, Mora makes the following comments:
Statement 1: "Emerging countries are dependent on foreign financing of growth, but it is important that a country not take on too much debt. A financial crisis can lead to currency devaluations and capital flight. Foreign debt levels greater than 50% of GDP or debt greater than 200% of current account receipts may indicate that a country is over-levered."
Statement 2: "In financial crises, emerging market debt is particularly susceptible, as currency devaluations will quickly reduce the principal and coupon value. Because most emerging debt is denominated in a domestic currency, the emerging government must have foreign currency reserves to defend its currency in the foreign exchange markets."

Using the Grinold and Kroner model, which of the three countries has the highest expected return for its equity market?

Jimena Mora, CFA and Jack Wieters, CFA are economists for Otterbein Forecasting. Otterbein provides economic consulting and forecasting services for institutional investors, medium-sized investment banks, and corporations. In order to forecast the performance of asset classes and formulate strategic asset allocations, Mora and Wieters are currently examining the capital market expectations for four developed countries: Alzano, Lombardo, Bergamo, and Linden. Wieters was hired in 2009 and Mora is his supervisor.
Mora and Wieters use the Grinold and Kroner model to forecast equity market performance. Macroeconomic forecasts and capital market expectations for three countries are given below:

Mora is also examining the return on federal government bills and bonds of various maturities for the country of Linden. The data are provided below:

One of Otterbein Forecasting's largest clients is an institutional investor in Linden, the Balduvi Endowment. The current and potential asset allocations for the endowment are shown below:


Mora asks Wieters for his opinion on the future of the economy in Linden and the appropriate investment for the Balduvi Endowment.
Mora has been asked by the Otterbein CEO to develop a model for explaining stock returns. In her master's degree training, Mora was instructed that the default risk premium has predictive power for stock returns, however the CEO has asked her to include other macroeconomic variables. Mora examines the following data for the capital market history of Bergamo:
1. Default risk premiums, which she measures as the difference in yields between high-yield bonds and government bonds;
2. Maturity risk premiums, which she measures as the difference in yields between ten-year and one-year government bonds; and
3. Lagged changes in the stock market.
Mora uses these variables to explain stock returns in the following year. Using 40 years of data, she finds the following results for the significance of the variables in explaining stock returns:

Mora concludes from the correlation analysis that, of the three variables studied, the default risk premium has the most predictive power for stock returns.
As the most recent hire at Otterbein Forecasting, Wieters is well versed on the latest evidence on asset pricing and financial engineering. However, Mora suspects that his limited experience results in erroneous forecasts. For instance, during the credit crisis of 2007-2008, annual stock returns in Lombardo averaged -12.6%.
However, using the 80-year history of its capital market, annual stock returns in Lombardo have averaged 13.6%. For his clients' strategic asset allocations in 2010 and onward, Wieters projects Lombardo stock returns of 6.5%. As his supervisor, Mora questions him about this and she suggests that Wieters revise his projections upward.
Mora and Wieters are discussing the valuation and risk analysis of emerging market securities and economies. In their discussion, Mora makes the following comments:
Statement 1: "Emerging countries are dependent on foreign financing of growth, but it is important that a country not take on too much debt. A financial crisis can lead to currency devaluations and capital flight. Foreign debt levels greater than 50% of GDP or debt greater than 200% of current account receipts may indicate that a country is over-levered."
Statement 2: "In financial crises, emerging market debt is particularly susceptible, as currency devaluations will quickly reduce the principal and coupon value. Because most emerging debt is denominated in a domestic currency, the emerging government must have foreign currency reserves to defend its currency in the foreign exchange markets."

What does the bond data predict for the future of the economy in Linden?

Jimena Mora, CFA and Jack Wieters, CFA are economists for Otterbein Forecasting. Otterbein provides economic consulting and forecasting services for institutional investors, medium-sized investment banks, and corporations. In order to forecast the performance of asset classes and formulate strategic asset allocations, Mora and Wieters are currently examining the capital market expectations for four developed countries: Alzano, Lombardo, Bergamo, and Linden. Wieters was hired in 2009 and Mora is his supervisor.
Mora and Wieters use the Grinold and Kroner model to forecast equity market performance. Macroeconomic forecasts and capital market expectations for three countries are given below:

Mora is also examining the return on federal government bills and bonds of various maturities for the country of Linden. The data are provided below:

One of Otterbein Forecasting's largest clients is an institutional investor in Linden, the Balduvi Endowment. The current and potential asset allocations for the endowment are shown below:


Mora asks Wieters for his opinion on the future of the economy in Linden and the appropriate investment for the Balduvi Endowment.
Mora has been asked by the Otterbein CEO to develop a model for explaining stock returns. In her master's degree training, Mora was instructed that the default risk premium has predictive power for stock returns, however the CEO has asked her to include other macroeconomic variables. Mora examines the following data for the capital market history of Bergamo:
1. Default risk premiums, which she measures as the difference in yields between high-yield bonds and government bonds;
2. Maturity risk premiums, which she measures as the difference in yields between ten-year and one-year government bonds; and
3. Lagged changes in the stock market.
Mora uses these variables to explain stock returns in the following year. Using 40 years of data, she finds the following results for the significance of the variables in explaining stock returns:

Mora concludes from the correlation analysis that, of the three variables studied, the default risk premium has the most predictive power for stock returns.
As the most recent hire at Otterbein Forecasting, Wieters is well versed on the latest evidence on asset pricing and financial engineering. However, Mora suspects that his limited experience results in erroneous forecasts. For instance, during the credit crisis of 2007-2008, annual stock returns in Lombardo averaged -12.6%.
However, using the 80-year history of its capital market, annual stock returns in Lombardo have averaged 13.6%. For his clients' strategic asset allocations in 2010 and onward, Wieters projects Lombardo stock returns of 6.5%. As his supervisor, Mora questions him about this and she suggests that Wieters revise his projections upward.
Mora and Wieters are discussing the valuation and risk analysis of emerging market securities and economies. In their discussion, Mora makes the following comments:
Statement 1: "Emerging countries are dependent on foreign financing of growth, but it is important that a country not take on too much debt. A financial crisis can lead to currency devaluations and capital flight. Foreign debt levels greater than 50% of GDP or debt greater than 200% of current account receipts may indicate that a country is over-levered."
Statement 2: "In financial crises, emerging market debt is particularly susceptible, as currency devaluations will quickly reduce the principal and coupon value. Because most emerging debt is denominated in a domestic currency, the emerging government must have foreign currency reserves to defend its currency in the foreign exchange markets."

Using only the forecast for the Linden economy, which of the following portfolios should Wieters recommend for the Balduvi Endowment?