Free CFA-Level-III Exam Braindumps (page: 33)

Travis Smith, CFA, is chief economic strategist and market analyst for Nashville Capital Management. He is developing a forecast of the S&P 500 stock market index utilizing different approaches.
Using microeconomic analysis, Smith wants to value the S&P using a dividend discount model (DDM) valuation approach. The trailing recent 52-week dividend for the S&P 500 equaled $60. Used as a proxy for the nominal risk-free rate, Treasury rates are as follows:
• 3-month T-bill rate: 3.5%
• 30-year T-bond rate: 5.0%
Smith uses an equity market premium equal to 6%. His estimate for the long-term outlook for ROE is 11%, and the long-run earnings retention rate is estimated at 40%.
Smith also is forecasting the market trends using varied macroeconomic techniques. He believes that security prices reflect expectations about the general economy. During his monitoring and forecasting of the overall economy, Smith is evaluating cyclical indicators and the business cycle. Smith has focused his analysis on three indicators:
1. Index of industrial production.
2. Interest rate spread between 10-year T-bonds and the fed funds rate.
3. Stock prices.
Smith is particularly interested in using stock market trends to predict economic turning points.
In conducting his research, Smith has found that the business cycle appears to be in the slowdown phase. In his capital markets forecasting activities, Smith looks at government policy, and attempts to predict business and consumer activity, along with foreign trade. Smith has determined that government policy has a significant influence on the business cycle, and he is trying to predict changes in government policy. Smith predicts that the government fiscal policy will loosen and that the Federal Reserve monetary policy will tighten. Smith estimates the following variables:
• Short-term neutral interest rate: 3.5%
• Nominal GDP long-term growth rate trend: 4.25%
• Federal Reserve inflation target: 2.25%
Smith forecasts that inflation will increase to 3.0%, and nominal GDP will grow at a 1.5% rate.
Smith's supervisor, Rasheed Gupta, requests a valuation of the S&P500 using a free cash flow to equity (FCFE) model. Gupta makes the following statement:

"A valuation model that replaces dividends with free cash flow to equity is a good alternative to the DDM If 1 remember correctly, free cash flow to equity equals net income plus depreciation."

Of the three indexes used by Smith to derive capital market expectations, which one is a coincident index according to the National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER) analysis of economic indicators?

Travis Smith, CFA, is chief economic strategist and market analyst for Nashville Capital Management. He is developing a forecast of the S&P 500 stock market index utilizing different approaches.
Using microeconomic analysis, Smith wants to value the S&P using a dividend discount model (DDM) valuation approach. The trailing recent 52-week dividend for the S&P 500 equaled $60. Used as a proxy for the nominal risk-free rate, Treasury rates are as follows:
• 3-month T-bill rate: 3.5%
• 30-year T-bond rate: 5.0%
Smith uses an equity market premium equal to 6%. His estimate for the long-term outlook for ROE is 11%, and the long-run earnings retention rate is estimated at 40%.
Smith also is forecasting the market trends using varied macroeconomic techniques. He believes that security prices reflect expectations about the general economy. During his monitoring and forecasting of the overall economy, Smith is evaluating cyclical indicators and the business cycle. Smith has focused his analysis on three indicators:
1. Index of industrial production.
2. Interest rate spread between 10-year T-bonds and the fed funds rate.
3. Stock prices.
Smith is particularly interested in using stock market trends to predict economic turning points.
In conducting his research, Smith has found that the business cycle appears to be in the slowdown phase. In his capital markets forecasting activities, Smith looks at government policy, and attempts to predict business and consumer activity, along with foreign trade. Smith has determined that government policy has a significant influence on the business cycle, and he is trying to predict changes in government policy. Smith predicts that the government fiscal policy will loosen and that the Federal Reserve monetary policy will tighten. Smith estimates the following variables:
• Short-term neutral interest rate: 3.5%
• Nominal GDP long-term growth rate trend: 4.25%
• Federal Reserve inflation target: 2.25%
Smith forecasts that inflation will increase to 3.0%, and nominal GDP will grow at a 1.5% rate.
Smith's supervisor, Rasheed Gupta, requests a valuation of the S&P500 using a free cash flow to equity (FCFE) model. Gupta makes the following statement:
"A valuation model that replaces dividends with free cash flow to equity is a good alternative to the DDM If 1 remember correctly, free cash flow to equity equals net income plus depreciation."

Using his fiscal and monetary policy forecasts, Smith should forecast that the yield curve will:

Travis Smith, CFA, is chief economic strategist and market analyst for Nashville Capital Management. He is developing a forecast of the S&P 500 stock market index utilizing different approaches.
Using microeconomic analysis, Smith wants to value the S&P using a dividend discount model (DDM) valuation approach. The trailing recent 52-week dividend for the S&P 500 equaled $60. Used as a proxy for the nominal risk-free rate, Treasury rates are as follows:
• 3-month T-bill rate: 3.5%
• 30-year T-bond rate: 5.0%
Smith uses an equity market premium equal to 6%. His estimate for the long-term outlook for ROE is 11%, and the long-run earnings retention rate is estimated at 40%.
Smith also is forecasting the market trends using varied macroeconomic techniques. He believes that security prices reflect expectations about the general economy. During his monitoring and forecasting of the overall economy, Smith is evaluating cyclical indicators and the business cycle. Smith has focused his analysis on three indicators:
1. Index of industrial production.
2. Interest rate spread between 10-year T-bonds and the fed funds rate.
3. Stock prices.
Smith is particularly interested in using stock market trends to predict economic turning points.
In conducting his research, Smith has found that the business cycle appears to be in the slowdown phase. In his capital markets forecasting activities, Smith looks at government policy, and attempts to predict business and consumer activity, along with foreign trade. Smith has determined that government policy has a significant influence on the business cycle, and he is trying to predict changes in government policy. Smith predicts that the government fiscal policy will loosen and that the Federal Reserve monetary policy will tighten. Smith estimates the following variables:
• Short-term neutral interest rate: 3.5%
• Nominal GDP long-term growth rate trend: 4.25%
• Federal Reserve inflation target: 2.25%
Smith forecasts that inflation will increase to 3.0%, and nominal GDP will grow at a 1.5% rate.
Smith's supervisor, Rasheed Gupta, requests a valuation of the S&P500 using a free cash flow to equity (FCFE) model. Gupta makes the following statement:
"A valuation model that replaces dividends with free cash flow to equity is a good alternative to the DDM If 1 remember correctly, free cash flow to equity equals net income plus depreciation."

In order to assess the Fed's position and forecast changes in short-term interest rates, using the Taylor Rule, what is the optimal short-term interest rate, based on Smith's assumed values for interest rates, inflation, and growth?

Travis Smith, CFA, is chief economic strategist and market analyst for Nashville Capital Management. He is developing a forecast of the S&P 500 stock market index utilizing different approaches.
Using microeconomic analysis, Smith wants to value the S&P using a dividend discount model (DDM) valuation approach. The trailing recent 52-week dividend for the S&P 500 equaled $60. Used as a proxy for the nominal risk-free rate, Treasury rates are as follows:
• 3-month T-bill rate: 3.5%
• 30-year T-bond rate: 5.0%
Smith uses an equity market premium equal to 6%. His estimate for the long-term outlook for ROE is 11%, and the long-run earnings retention rate is estimated at 40%.
Smith also is forecasting the market trends using varied macroeconomic techniques. He believes that security prices reflect expectations about the general economy. During his monitoring and forecasting of the overall economy, Smith is evaluating cyclical indicators and the business cycle. Smith has focused his analysis on three indicators:
1. Index of industrial production.
2. Interest rate spread between 10-year T-bonds and the fed funds rate.
3. Stock prices.
Smith is particularly interested in using stock market trends to predict economic turning points.
In conducting his research, Smith has found that the business cycle appears to be in the slowdown phase. In his capital markets forecasting activities, Smith looks at government policy, and attempts to predict business and consumer activity, along with foreign trade. Smith has determined that government policy has a significant influence on the business cycle, and he is trying to predict changes in government policy. Smith predicts that the government fiscal policy will loosen and that the Federal Reserve monetary policy will tighten. Smith estimates the following variables:
• Short-term neutral interest rate: 3.5%
• Nominal GDP long-term growth rate trend: 4.25%
• Federal Reserve inflation target: 2.25%
Smith forecasts that inflation will increase to 3.0%, and nominal GDP will grow at a 1.5% rate.
Smith's supervisor, Rasheed Gupta, requests a valuation of the S&P500 using a free cash flow to equity (FCFE) model. Gupta makes the following statement:
"A valuation model that replaces dividends with free cash flow to equity is a good alternative to the DDM If 1 remember correctly, free cash flow to equity equals net income plus depreciation."

Supervisor Gupta's recommendations for the calculation of FCFII will lead to a valuation of the S&P 500 that most likely is: