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CFA Level II Chartered Financial Analyst Questions 105–109 (page: 43)

Rogcrt Markets is the nation's third largest retail grocery chain, and usually has the largest or second largest market share in every city in which it competes. In its most successful large cities, Rogert has as much as a 25% market share, although its share is sometimes greater in small cities. Rogert is known for its excellent customer service and has a wide variety of grocery selections in almost every part of its stores. Its profit margins on sales are slightly above industry averages, and its return on assets and return on equity are above average.
Rogert has an equity beta of 0.78 and a debt-to-capital ratio of approximately 50%. Recent economic difficulties, including higher commodity prices and higher unemployment, resulted in lower profit margins for Rogert. Still, Rogert's decline in profit margin was less than for its competitors. Rogert did not experience substantial losses of sales from customers switching to lower-priced competitors as its market share remained substantially constant.

Zephine Markets is one of Rogert's smaller competitors. Zephine operates in roughly 15% of the same cities as Roger. Zephine is publicly traded, and one of the members of Rogert's board of directors has asked the staff to evaluate an acquisition of Zephine. The staff believes that Zephine is slightly underpriced and that it could be acquired for a 20% premium over its current price. In recommending against the acquisition, staff member Pierre Chiraq says:

"I agree that eliminating Zephine as a rival would probably enhance our profit margins. However, I am skeptical about this acquisition. First, because our market share is almost never dominant, much of the benefit of eliminating a smaller rival will be shared by our other rivals. They will free- ride on our investment. Second, if our profit margins do increase, wc will eventually attract new rivals into our markets. And finally, our cost of capital should increase substantially because the firm will be diversifying horizontally instead of vertically, increasing the firm's risk."

Over the last several years, grocery industry growth has tended to follow the general economy. The competitors in the industry, like Rogert, compete for market share in a stable industry. The industry's cyclical behavior has shown stable performance in both the ups and downs of the business cycle.

In assessing Rogert's competitive position, Chiraq makes comments about the threat of new entrants:

"My concern about new entrants into our business is low for several reasons. Economies of scale are achievable at a low size of operations relative to that of our firm. Our brand identity is high in the markets in which we compete. And, finally, access to distribution channels is difficult to achieve in the grocery business. While there are many competitive forces that concern mc, new entrants is low on my list."

Finally, the staff discusses industry changes that might have a negative effect on Rogert's industry position. Three phenomena are mentioned that could have such an effect. They are:

1. Industry growth rates are low and declining;
2. Several suppliers are sponsoring national television advertisements for their products;
3. The government has approved a new method of extending the shelf life of fruits and vegetables.

Which of Chiraq's reasons for opposing the acquisition of Zephiue Markets is least likely to be correct?

Rogcrt Markets is the nation's third largest retail grocery chain, and usually has the largest or second largest market share in every city in which it competes. In its most successful large cities, Rogert has as much as a 25% market share, although its share is sometimes greater in small cities. Rogert is known for its excellent customer service and has a wide variety of grocery selections in almost every part of its stores. Its profit margins on sales are slightly above industry averages, and its return on assets and return on equity are above average.
Rogert has an equity beta of 0.78 and a debt-to-capital ratio of approximately 50%. Recent economic difficulties, including higher commodity prices and higher unemployment, resulted in lower profit margins for Rogert. Still, Rogert's decline in profit margin was less than for its competitors. Rogert did not experience substantial losses of sales from customers switching to lower-priced competitors as its market share remained substantially constant.

Zephine Markets is one of Rogert's smaller competitors. Zephine operates in roughly 15% of the same cities as Roger. Zephine is publicly traded, and one of the members of Rogert's board of directors has asked the staff to evaluate an acquisition of Zephine. The staff believes that Zephine is slightly underpriced and that it could be acquired for a 20% premium over its current price. In recommending against the acquisition, staff member Pierre Chiraq says:

"I agree that eliminating Zephine as a rival would probably enhance our profit margins. However, I am skeptical about this acquisition. First, because our market share is almost never dominant, much of the benefit of eliminating a smaller rival will be shared by our other rivals. They will free- ride on our investment. Second, if our profit margins do increase, wc will eventually attract new rivals into our markets. And finally, our cost of capital should increase substantially because the firm will be diversifying horizontally instead of vertically, increasing the firm's risk."

Over the last several years, grocery industry growth has tended to follow the general economy. The competitors in the industry, like Rogert, compete for market share in a stable industry. The industry's cyclical behavior has shown stable performance in both the ups and downs of the business cycle.

In assessing Rogert's competitive position, Chiraq makes comments about the threat of new entrants:

"My concern about new entrants into our business is low for several reasons. Economies of scale are achievable at a low size of operations relative to that of our firm. Our brand identity is high in the markets in which we compete. And, finally, access to distribution channels is difficult to achieve in the grocery business. While there are many competitive forces that concern mc, new entrants is low on my list."

Finally, the staff discusses industry changes that might have a negative effect on Rogert's industry position. Three phenomena are mentioned that could have such an effect. They are:

1. Industry growth rates are low and declining;
2. Several suppliers are sponsoring national television advertisements for their products;
3. The government has approved a new method of extending the shelf life of fruits and vegetables.

Classify the phase of the industrial life cycle and the business cycle behavior of the grocery industry. The grocery industry is in the:

Rogcrt Markets is the nation's third largest retail grocery chain, and usually has the largest or second largest market share in every city in which it competes. In its most successful large cities, Rogert has as much as a 25% market share, although its share is sometimes greater in small cities. Rogert is known for its excellent customer service and has a wide variety of grocery selections in almost every part of its stores. Its profit margins on sales are slightly above industry averages, and its return on assets and return on equity are above average.
Rogert has an equity beta of 0.78 and a debt-to-capital ratio of approximately 50%. Recent economic difficulties, including higher commodity prices and higher unemployment, resulted in lower profit margins for Rogert. Still, Rogert's decline in profit margin was less than for its competitors. Rogert did not experience substantial losses of sales from customers switching to lower-priced competitors as its market share remained substantially constant.

Zephine Markets is one of Rogert's smaller competitors. Zephine operates in roughly 15% of the same cities as Roger. Zephine is publicly traded, and one of the members of Rogert's board of directors has asked the staff to evaluate an acquisition of Zephine. The staff believes that Zephine is slightly underpriced and that it could be acquired for a 20% premium over its current price. In recommending against the acquisition, staff member Pierre Chiraq says:

"I agree that eliminating Zephine as a rival would probably enhance our profit margins. However, I am skeptical about this acquisition. First, because our market share is almost never dominant, much of the benefit of eliminating a smaller rival will be shared by our other rivals. They will free- ride on our investment. Second, if our profit margins do increase, wc will eventually attract new rivals into our markets. And finally, our cost of capital should increase substantially because the firm will be diversifying horizontally instead of vertically, increasing the firm's risk."

Over the last several years, grocery industry growth has tended to follow the general economy. The competitors in the industry, like Rogert, compete for market share in a stable industry. The industry's cyclical behavior has shown stable performance in both the ups and downs of the business cycle.

In assessing Rogert's competitive position, Chiraq makes comments about the threat of new entrants:

"My concern about new entrants into our business is low for several reasons. Economies of scale are achievable at a low size of operations relative to that of our firm. Our brand identity is high in the markets in which we compete. And, finally, access to distribution channels is difficult to achieve in the grocery business. While there are many competitive forces that concern mc, new entrants is low on my list."

Finally, the staff discusses industry changes that might have a negative effect on Rogert's industry position. Three phenomena are mentioned that could have such an effect. They are:

1. Industry growth rates are low and declining;
2. Several suppliers are sponsoring national television advertisements for their products;
3. The government has approved a new method of extending the shelf life of fruits and vegetables.

Chiraq's concerns about new entrants into Rogert's business is least likely correct regarding:

Rogcrt Markets is the nation's third largest retail grocery chain, and usually has the largest or second largest market share in every city in which it competes. In its most successful large cities, Rogert has as much as a 25% market share, although its share is sometimes greater in small cities. Rogert is known for its excellent customer service and has a wide variety of grocery selections in almost every part of its stores. Its profit margins on sales are slightly above industry averages, and its return on assets and return on equity are above average.
Rogert has an equity beta of 0.78 and a debt-to-capital ratio of approximately 50%. Recent economic difficulties, including higher commodity prices and higher unemployment, resulted in lower profit margins for Rogert. Still, Rogert's decline in profit margin was less than for its competitors. Rogert did not experience substantial losses of sales from customers switching to lower-priced competitors as its market share remained substantially constant.

Zephine Markets is one of Rogert's smaller competitors. Zephine operates in roughly 15% of the same cities as Roger. Zephine is publicly traded, and one of the members of Rogert's board of directors has asked the staff to evaluate an acquisition of Zephine. The staff believes that Zephine is slightly underpriced and that it could be acquired for a 20% premium over its current price. In recommending against the acquisition, staff member Pierre Chiraq says:

"I agree that eliminating Zephine as a rival would probably enhance our profit margins. However, I am skeptical about this acquisition. First, because our market share is almost never dominant, much of the benefit of eliminating a smaller rival will be shared by our other rivals. They will free- ride on our investment. Second, if our profit margins do increase, wc will eventually attract new rivals into our markets. And finally, our cost of capital should increase substantially because the firm will be diversifying horizontally instead of vertically, increasing the firm's risk."

Over the last several years, grocery industry growth has tended to follow the general economy. The competitors in the industry, like Rogert, compete for market share in a stable industry. The industry's cyclical behavior has shown stable performance in both the ups and downs of the business cycle.

In assessing Rogert's competitive position, Chiraq makes comments about the threat of new entrants:

"My concern about new entrants into our business is low for several reasons. Economies of scale are achievable at a low size of operations relative to that of our firm. Our brand identity is high in the markets in which we compete. And, finally, access to distribution channels is difficult to achieve in the grocery business. While there are many competitive forces that concern mc, new entrants is low on my list."

Finally, the staff discusses industry changes that might have a negative effect on Rogert's industry position. Three phenomena are mentioned that could have such an effect. They are:

1. Industry growth rates are low and declining;
2. Several suppliers are sponsoring national television advertisements for their products;
3. The government has approved a new method of extending the shelf life of fruits and vegetables.

Which industry change mentioned by the staff is least likely to reduce Rogert's profitability?

George Armor, CFA, is a new stock analyst for Pedad Investments. One tool that Pedad uses to compare stock valuations is the dividend discount model (DOM). In particular, the firm evaluates stocks in terms of "justified" multiples of sales and book value. These multiples are based on algebraic manipulation of the DDM. Over time, these multiples seem to provide a good check on the market valuation of a stock relative to the company's fundamentals. Any stock which is currently priced below its value based on a justified multiple of sales or book value is considered attractive for purchase by Pedad portfolio managers. Exhibit 1 contains financial information from the year just ended for three stable companies in the meat-packing industry: Able Corp, Baker, Inc., and Charles Company, from which Armor will derive his valuation estimates.



One of Pedad's other equity analysts, Marie Swift, CFA, recently held a meeting with Armor to discuss a relatively new model the firm is implementing to determine the P/E ratios of companies that Pedad researches. Swift explains that the model utilizes a cross-sectional regression using the previous year-end data of a group of comparable companies' P/E ratios against their dividend payout ratios (r), sustainable growth rates (g), and returns on equity (ROE). The resulting regression equation is used to determine a predicted P/E ratio for the subject company using the subject company's most recent year-end data. Swift has developed the following model, which has an R-squared of 81%, for the meat packing industry (16 companies):

Predicted P/E = 2.74 + 8.21(r) + 14.21(g) + 2.81(ROE)
(STD error) (2.11) (6.52) (9.24) (2.10)

After Swift presents the model to Armor, she points out that models of this nature are subject to limitations. In particular, multicollinearity, which appears to be present in the meat packing industry model, can create great difficulty in interpreting the effects of the individual coefficients of the model. Swift continues by stating that in spite of this limitation, models of this nature generally have known and significant predictive power across different time periods although not across different stocks.

Based on Exhibit 1, select the stock that is the most undervalued by applying the justified price-to- book value method.