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CFA Level II Chartered Financial Analyst Questions 58–62 (page: 73)

Mary Pierce, CFA, has just joined The James Group as a fixed income security analyst. Pierce has taken over for Katy Williams, who left The James Group to start her own investment firm. Pierce has been reviewing Williams's files, which include data on a number of securities that Williams had been reviewing.
The first file had information on several different asset-backed securities. A summary schedule that Williams had prepared is shown in Exhibit 1.
Exhibit 1: Summary Schedule


The second file included the following schedule of information relating to a specific CMO that Williams had been considering. Exhibit 2 reflects the results of a Monte Carlo simulation based on 15% volatility of interest rates. This security is still available, and Pierce needs to evaluate the investment merit of any or all of the listed tranches.



A third file contained notes Williams had taken at a seminar a couple of months ago on valuing various types of asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. These notes included the following comments that Pierce found interesting:

"Cash flow yield (CFY) is one method of valuing mortgage-backed securities. An advantage of the CFY is that it does not rely on any specific prepayment assumptions. An important weakness of CFY is the assumption that interim cash flows will be reinvested at the CFY. This is rarely true for mortgage-backed securities."

"Cash flow duration is similar to effective duration, but its weakness is that it fails to fully account for changes in prepayment rates as cash flow yields change. Empirical duration suffers two disadvantages as a measure of interest rate exposure: reliance on theoretical formulas and reliance on historical pricing data that may not exist for many mortgage-backed securities."

"The recent increase in the default rate for subprime adjustable rate mortgages can be traced to the structure of these loans. The negative amortization feature of these loans basically gave the borrower an at-the-money call option on their property. Once the property decreased in value, this call option was worthless, and the borrower had no incentive to make any additional payments."

Evaluate the validity of Williams's comments regarding cash flow yield. She was correct:

Mary Pierce, CFA, has just joined The James Group as a fixed income security analyst. Pierce has taken over for Katy Williams, who left The James Group to start her own investment firm. Pierce has been reviewing Williams's files, which include data on a number of securities that Williams had been reviewing.
The first file had information on several different asset-backed securities. A summary schedule that Williams had prepared is shown in Exhibit 1.
Exhibit 1: Summary Schedule


The second file included the following schedule of information relating to a specific CMO that Williams had been considering. Exhibit 2 reflects the results of a Monte Carlo simulation based on 15% volatility of interest rates. This security is still available, and Pierce needs to evaluate the investment merit of any or all of the listed tranches.



A third file contained notes Williams had taken at a seminar a couple of months ago on valuing various types of asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. These notes included the following comments that Pierce found interesting:

"Cash flow yield (CFY) is one method of valuing mortgage-backed securities. An advantage of the CFY is that it does not rely on any specific prepayment assumptions. An important weakness of CFY is the assumption that interim cash flows will be reinvested at the CFY. This is rarely true for mortgage-backed securities."

"Cash flow duration is similar to effective duration, but its weakness is that it fails to fully account for changes in prepayment rates as cash flow yields change. Empirical duration suffers two disadvantages as a measure of interest rate exposure: reliance on theoretical formulas and reliance on historical pricing data that may not exist for many mortgage-backed securities."

"The recent increase in the default rate for subprime adjustable rate mortgages can be traced to the structure of these loans. The negative amortization feature of these loans basically gave the borrower an at-the-money call option on their property. Once the property decreased in value, this call option was worthless, and the borrower had no incentive to make any additional payments."

Evaluate the validity of Williams's comments regarding different duration measures. Her comments as to the weaknesses of each duration measure were:

Mary Pierce, CFA, has just joined The James Group as a fixed income security analyst. Pierce has taken over for Katy Williams, who left The James Group to start her own investment firm. Pierce has been reviewing Williams's files, which include data on a number of securities that Williams had been reviewing.
The first file had information on several different asset-backed securities. A summary schedule that Williams had prepared is shown in Exhibit 1.
Exhibit 1: Summary Schedule


The second file included the following schedule of information relating to a specific CMO that Williams had been considering. Exhibit 2 reflects the results of a Monte Carlo simulation based on 15% volatility of interest rates. This security is still available, and Pierce needs to evaluate the investment merit of any or all of the listed tranches.



A third file contained notes Williams had taken at a seminar a couple of months ago on valuing various types of asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. These notes included the following comments that Pierce found interesting:

"Cash flow yield (CFY) is one method of valuing mortgage-backed securities. An advantage of the CFY is that it does not rely on any specific prepayment assumptions. An important weakness of CFY is the assumption that interim cash flows will be reinvested at the CFY. This is rarely true for mortgage-backed securities."

"Cash flow duration is similar to effective duration, but its weakness is that it fails to fully account for changes in prepayment rates as cash flow yields change. Empirical duration suffers two disadvantages as a measure of interest rate exposure: reliance on theoretical formulas and reliance on historical pricing data that may not exist for many mortgage-backed securities."

"The recent increase in the default rate for subprime adjustable rate mortgages can be traced to the structure of these loans. The negative amortization feature of these loans basically gave the borrower an at-the-money call option on their property. Once the property decreased in value, this call option was worthless, and the borrower had no incentive to make any additional payments."

Williams's comments regarding the increasing default rates for subprime adjustable rate mortgages were:

Michael Thomas, CFA, is a fixed-income portfolio manager for TFC Investments. As part of his portfolio strategy for the Prosperity Fund, Thomas searches for companies that he expects to be upgraded or downgraded. Those potential upgrades he finds are added to the portfolio or if already in the portfolio are increased in proportion to other holdings before the upgrade takes place.

Potential downgrades are sold from the portfolio before the downgrade takes place. Thomas is evaluating his portfolio's current holdings which include several bonds issued by companies in the oil and gas exploration and refining industries. Year-end rating updates are expected to occur in a few days and Thomas is preparing to adjust his portfolio based on expected changes in credit ratings. He has assembled the following annual data on four of the oil and gas stocks in the portfolio:

Exhibit: 1


Thomas has been discussing his fixed-income strategies with a fellow portfolio manager, Shawna Reese. Reese has indicated that while his initial approach is good, the overall credit analysis strategy could be improved and has made the following suggestions to Thomas for both the Prosperity Fund and other fixed-income funds he manages:

The current methodology does not consider special issues related to high-yield debt which makes up approximately 5% of the Prosperity Fund. Because most high-yield issuers have such a heavy dependence on short-term debt financing, analysis of the firm's debt structure will be extremely important to determine the priority of claims on the firm's assets as well as what source(s) of funds will be used to repay the principal. In addition, the corporate structure of high-yield issuers must be examined to determine the issuer's access to cash flows generated by its subsidiaries. A simple analysis of the parent's financial ratios will not reveal complicated corporate structures and indebtedness of subsidiaries that may restrict the issuer's ability to obtain the cash flows necessary to service its debt.

The current methodology as applied to the Municipal Opportunities Fund does not include the necessary specialized analysis for municipal securities. Among other items, tax-backed munis must be scrutinized as to the issuer's ability to maintain balanced budgets as well as to ensure that the issue has first priority of claims to revenue from public works projects. Revenue-backed munis require an assessment of the sufficiency of rate covenants to cover expenses and debt servicing of the underlying project as well as the ability for other government entities to access the revenues generated by the enterprise before they are passed on to revenue bondholders.

As part of his portfolio analysis, Thomas also examines yield volatility. Thomas makes the following statements:
Statement 1: Implied yield volatility estimates are based on the assumptions that the option pricing model is correct and that volatility is constant.

Statement 2: Yield volatility has been observed to follow patterns over time that can be modeled and used to forecast future volatility.
He concludes his analysis by comparing the swap rate curve to a government bond yield curve as a benchmark.

In accordance with his stated strategy, which of the companies included in Exhibit 1 should Thomas sell from the portfolio in anticipation of the credit rating updates?

Michael Thomas, CFA, is a fixed-income portfolio manager for TFC Investments. As part of his portfolio strategy for the Prosperity Fund, Thomas searches for companies that he expects to be upgraded or downgraded. Those potential upgrades he finds are added to the portfolio or if already in the portfolio are increased in proportion to other holdings before the upgrade takes place.

Potential downgrades are sold from the portfolio before the downgrade takes place. Thomas is evaluating his portfolio's current holdings which include several bonds issued by companies in the oil and gas exploration and refining industries. Year-end rating updates are expected to occur in a few days and Thomas is preparing to adjust his portfolio based on expected changes in credit ratings. He has assembled the following annual data on four of the oil and gas stocks in the portfolio:

Exhibit: 1


Thomas has been discussing his fixed-income strategies with a fellow portfolio manager, Shawna Reese. Reese has indicated that while his initial approach is good, the overall credit analysis strategy could be improved and has made the following suggestions to Thomas for both the Prosperity Fund and other fixed-income funds he manages:

The current methodology does not consider special issues related to high-yield debt which makes up approximately 5% of the Prosperity Fund. Because most high-yield issuers have such a heavy dependence on short-term debt financing, analysis of the firm's debt structure will be extremely important to determine the priority of claims on the firm's assets as well as what source(s) of funds will be used to repay the principal. In addition, the corporate structure of high-yield issuers must be examined to determine the issuer's access to cash flows generated by its subsidiaries. A simple analysis of the parent's financial ratios will not reveal complicated corporate structures and indebtedness of subsidiaries that may restrict the issuer's ability to obtain the cash flows necessary to service its debt.

The current methodology as applied to the Municipal Opportunities Fund does not include the necessary specialized analysis for municipal securities. Among other items, tax-backed munis must be scrutinized as to the issuer's ability to maintain balanced budgets as well as to ensure that the issue has first priority of claims to revenue from public works projects. Revenue-backed munis require an assessment of the sufficiency of rate covenants to cover expenses and debt servicing of the underlying project as well as the ability for other government entities to access the revenues generated by the enterprise before they are passed on to revenue bondholders.

As part of his portfolio analysis, Thomas also examines yield volatility. Thomas makes the following statements:
Statement 1: Implied yield volatility estimates are based on the assumptions that the option pricing model is correct and that volatility is constant.

Statement 2: Yield volatility has been observed to follow patterns over time that can be modeled and used to forecast future volatility.
He concludes his analysis by comparing the swap rate curve to a government bond yield curve as a benchmark.

In accordance with his stated strategy, which of the companies included in Exhibit 1 should Thomas buy for the portfolio in anticipation of the credit rating updates?