QUESTION: 361

Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated?

Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.

Answer(s): B

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QUESTION: 362

Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast, aside from the doubt expressed in the passage above?

The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.
Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.
As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.
Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.
With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.

Answer(s): B

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QUESTION: 363

Of the countries that were the world’s twenty largest exporters in 1953, four had the same share of total world exports in 1984 as in 1953. These countries can therefore serve as models for those countries that wish to keep their share of the global export trade stable over the years.
Which of the following, if true, casts the most serious doubt on the suitability of those four countries as models in the sense described?

Many countries wish to increase their share of world export trade, not just keep it stable.
Many countries are less concerned with exports alone than with the balances between exports and imports.
With respect to the mix of products each exports, the four countries are very different from each other.
Of the four countries, two had a much larger, and two had a much smaller, share of total world exports in 1970 than in 1984.
The exports of the four countries range from 15 percent to 75 percent of the total national output.

Answer(s): D

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QUESTION: 364

In the United States, the Postal Service has a monopoly on first-class mail, but much of what is sent first class could be transmitted electronically. Electronic transmittal operators argue that if the Postal Service were to offer electronic transmission, it would have an unfair advantage, since its electronic transmission service could be subsidized from the profits of the monopoly.
Which of the following, if each is true, would allay the electronic transmittal operators’ fears of unfair competition?

If the Postal Service were to offer electronic transmission, it could not make a profit on first-class mail.
If the Postal Service were to offer electronic transmission, it would have a monopoly on that kind of service.
Much of the material that is now sent by first-class mail could be delivered much faster by special package couriers, but is not sent that way because of cost.
There is no economy of scale in electronic transmission — that is, the cost per transaction does not go down as more pieces of information are transmitted.
Electronic transmission will never be cost-effective for material not sent by first-class mail such as newspapers and bulk mail.

Answer(s): A

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