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Free IIA IIA-CIA-Part3 Exam Braindumps (page: 65)

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PDF with 1555 Questions

The process of making sure that the model measures what it is supposed to measure is called:

  1. Statistical inference.
  2. Hypothesis testing.
  3. Confidence coefficient analysis.
  4. Validation.

Answer(s): D

Explanation:

Validation is a step in the simulation procedure. Some assurance is needed that the results of the experiment will be realistic. This assurance requires validation of the model -- often using historical data. If the model gives results equivalent to what actually happened, the model is historically valid. There is still some risk, however, that changes could make the model invalid for the future.



The marketing department of a company is deciding on the price to charge for a key product.
In setting this price, marketing needs to consider the price that a major competitor will charge for a similar product because the competitor's price will affect the demand for the company's product. Similarly, in setting its price, the competitor will consider what the company will charge.
What is an appropriate mathematical technique for analyzing such a decision?

  1. Game theory.
  2. Probability theory.
  3. Linear programming.
  4. Sensitivity analysis.

Answer(s): A

Explanation:

Game or decision) theory is a mathematical approach to decision making when confronted with an enemy or competitor. Games are classified according to the number of players and the algebraic sum of the payoffs. In a two-person game, if the payoff is given by the loser to the winner, the algebraic sum is zero and the game is called a zero-sum game. If it is possible for both players to profit, however, the game is a positive-sum game. Mathematical models have been developed to select optimal strategies for certain simple games.



Because of the large number of factors that could affect the demand for its new product, interactions among these factors, and the probabilities associated with different values of these factors, the marketing department would like to develop a computerized model for projecting demand for this product. By using a random-number procedure to generate values for the different factors, it will be able to estimate the distribution of demand for this new product. This method of estimating the distribution of demand for the new product is called

  1. Monte Carlo simulation.
  2. Linear programming.
  3. Correlation analysis.
  4. Differential analysis.

Answer(s): A

Explanation:

Simulation is a technique in which a probabilistic process is first modeled. The inputs to the model are then varied a large number of times to estimate the distribution of possible outcomes from the model of the variable of interest. Simulations that use a random-number procedure to generate values for the inputs are referred to as Monte Carlo simulations.



An account executive has just designed a Monte Carlo model to estimate the costs of a particular type of project. Validating the model could include all except:

  1. Checking for errors in the computer programming.
  2. Checking that assumed probability distributions are reasonable.
  3. Comparing test results with previously validated models.
  4. Applying the model.

Answer(s): D

Explanation:

The Monte Carlo technique is used in a simulation to generate the individual values for a random value. An essential step in the simulation procedure is to validate the mathematical model used. This process involves not only searching for errors but also verifying the assumptions. It also should provide some assurance that the results of the experiment will be realistic. This assurance is often obtained using historical data. If the model gives results equivalent to what actually happened, the model is historically valid. There is still some risk, however, that changes could make the model invalid for the future. The model should not be implemented until this validation process is complete.



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